The Citizens Budget Commission (CBC) today released a comprehensive analysis of the major demographic, economic, and fiscal trends in New York State since Governor Andrew Cuomo assumed office on January 1, 2011.

“As Governor Cuomo’s second term comes to an end, it is important to take stock of the last eight years,” said CBC President Carol Kellermann. “Fiscally responsible reforms have been enacted to pension benefits, Medicaid spending, and higher education funding. Important challenges remain, including addressing stagnant upstate job growth, tackling the large unfunded liability for retiree health benefits, and reversing the decline in subway performance.” 

CBC examined state performance across seven key areas: demographic and economic trends, fiscal trends, health, education, infrastructure, crime and corrections, and energy and the environment. Key findings include:

1. Population growth has lagged the rest of the nation, growing 2.3 percent to 19.9 million in New York compared to 5.3 percent nationally.
2. Private employment growth lagged the national average between 2010 and 2016: 11.6 percent in New York compared to 11 percent nationally. Job growth was strongest in New York City, Long Island, and the Hudson Valley. Three regions, the Mohawk Valley, North Country, and Southern Tier, lost jobs during this period.
3. All Funds spending in fiscal year 2011 was $135 billion and is projected to reach $170 billion in fiscal year 2019, an increase of 26.3 percent, or 3 percent annually. State Operating Funds spending grew at approximately the same pace, 2.8 percent annually.
4. The State workforce decreased to 182,000 full-time equivalent employees in fiscal year 2019, but the average annual cost of compensation continued to grow and is projected to exceed $127,000 per employee in fiscal year 2019.
5. New York’s other postemployment benefits (OPEB) liability grew 61 percent from $57.0 billion to $91.7 billion between fiscal years 2011 and 2017, totaling more than $4,700 per New York State resident.
6. Spending on the State’s Medicaid program grew from $54 billion to $70 billion between fiscal year 2011 and fiscal year 2019. Spending grew more slowly than the national average, increasing 18 percent in New York compared to 35 percent nationwide between federal fiscal years 2011 and 201
7. State education aid grew faster than inflation and 50 percent faster than the national average. New York’s spending per pupil ($11,762) is almost twice the national average ($22,366)
8. While tuition at the State University of New York (SUNY) and the City University of New York (CUNY) has increased by 40 percent, tuition remains less than the national average. State support significantly exceeds the national average: $10,130 per full-time equivalent (FTE) student versus $7,120 nationally on average.
9. Conditions on state-owned road and bridges have improved, but the on-time performance of the MTA's subways decreased from 89 percent to 63 percent.
10. In New York and nationally, violent and nonviolent crime rates decreased, while the prison population also declined.
11. Between 2010 and 2016, electric rates in New York declined while increasing in the nation; however, rates remain higher than the national average for both residential and commercial customers. Emissions decreased more slowly in New York between 2010 and 2016, although New York’s per capita emissions remain below the national average.

CBC will be examining some of the most important economic and fiscal issues facing the State in a conference to be held in New York City on December 17, 2018.

For more trends from Governor Cuomo’s two terms in office and to read “NYS Trends During the Cuomo Administration,” visit https://cbcny.org/research/nys-trends-during-cuomo-administration.