This report analyzes how New York State has veered from "a path of solid fiscal reform," to a road fraught with large deficits and excessive borrowing to meet cash needs. An examination of the causes of these financial problems, and of the State's policy responses, leads to a set of guidelines for financial recovery.

With support from the NYNEX Foundation, the Commission sought to identify obstacles to continued economic growth in the city. The following papers were commissioned to study five potential "future shocks."

The origins of the Future Shocks Project are described in this paper, setting the tone for an overview of the five papers commissioned for the conference.

This study addresses the question of how well the city's financiers will compete in a business characterized by ever-increasing globalization, continuation of a trend toward securitization of financial assets, and more competition from bankers in other American cities. It considers the future competitiveness of the city's banking and finance industry, and the city's ability to provide or attract a sufficient workforce and to maintain a competitive cost structure.

This study begins by estimating that approximately 40 percent of the city's jobs and 50 percent of its payroll result from the information economy; for Manhattan alone, the respective numbers are over 50 percent and 60 percent. It documents two significant occurrences: (1) the decline of the city as a location for corporate headquarters; and, (2) the software boom in New York City and its linkage to business, publishing and computing services.

This study shows that the city's population size and density grew during the 1980s relative to the rest of the New York region and to other major American cities; more than one-seventh of the 4.5 million immigrants admitted to this country between 1979 and 1986 chose to reside in New York City. As a result, the share of city residents who are foreign born grew from 24 percent in 1980 to 36 percent in 1987; by the year 2000, this ratio will grow to 56 percent. This study also predicts an unprecedented scale and diversity of immigration in the city's future.

This study examines local supplies of labor, housing and transportation, and the effect they will have on the viability of the city's economy. It points out that the New York region is experiencing an unprecedented labor shortage. The current housing shortage and high housing costs exacerbate difficulties in attracting labor. The transportation infrastructure, already in need of extensive rehabilitation, also needs to be expanded to meet future needs. This study predicts that the decade of economic growth will come to a halt unless this "triple threat" is addressed.

The city's landfills are being filled rapidly, and no disposal alternatives are yet in place. This situation raises the specter of exporting garbage, an extraordinarily expensive prospect. This paper evaluates three possible scenarios. In each case, available landfill space will be exhausted shortly after the turn of the century, and the cost of exporting trash will range from $1 billion to $3 billion annually by the year 2010.

The Ten-Year Capital Plan released by New York City in May 1988 is its largest ever--$57 billion. This report reviews the contents of the Plan, raising four significant issues: affordability; implementation; adequacy; and, prioritization of capital projects. The report suggests areas where the City's Plan falls short of the need, as well as areas where the City may be overspending.

In its continuing series of reports on municipal services, the CBC looks at the Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) and the Human Resources Administration (HRA). The report focuses on three issues: spending; volume and workload; and, quality. The result is an evaluation of the services provided to New Yorkers by HHC and HRA.

The City of New York's Preliminary Budget for fiscal year 1990 indicates a gap of $496 million dollars; an additional $443 shortfall is estimated for fiscal years 1989 and 1990 if certain cost-cutting measures are enacted by the State of New York. This report examines the nature of the budget and its expected gap, as well as dissects Mayor Koch's proposed actions to close the gap. The report also contains a set of suggested measures on the part of the City and State to close the deficit.

Excerpts of the proceedings of the Future Shocks to the New York Conference are presented in this issue of the Quarterly. The Future Shocks project examined four potential problem areas for the future of the City: solid waste disposal; threats to financial services and information industries; immigration; and, shortages in housing, labor and transportation. The remarks of leading politicians, academicians and businessmen on these four issues make up the bulk of this issue, as well as the remarks from a plenary session with Mayor Edward I. Koch, Board of Education President Robert F. Wagner, Jr., and Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Executive Director Stephen Berger.

This issue of the Quarterly is devoted to the proceedings of a forum hosted by the CBC for the purpose of eliciting responses to fiscal and service delivery issues from the candidates for mayor of New York. The forum was attended by David N. Dinkins, Borough President of Manhattan; Harrison J. Goldin, City Comptroller; Richard Ravitch, former chairman of the Charter Revision Commission, and former head of both the MTA and the Urban Development Corporation; and, Ronald S. Lauder, former ambassador to Austria.

This report presents the results of an inquiry into the nature of municipal capital project implementation. Two critical findings emerge: First, the City of New York lacks adequate information on the status of its capital program; second, the limited available information indicates significant delays in project implementation. The extent and nature of delays are examined for 342 projects initiated since fiscal year 1983 and scheduled for completion by June 30, 1989. Recommendations are made for the resolution of the causes of capital project delays.

This issue of the Quarterly presents an article examining the state of property taxes in New York City. A brief history of property taxes in the city is related as prelude to an in-depth review of the current plight of the property tax system. City property tax policy, statutory limitations, and the structure of the system are highlighted as the major causes of a very inequitable distribution of the tax burden among different types of property. The article concludes with a look at the City's tax dilemma in 1989, and the steps taken (or not taken) to remedy the problem. This issue also includes an interview with Edward L. Sadowsky, City Council Member from 1961 to 1985, a member of the Board of Education, and chairman of the New York City Tax Study Commission.

The Commission expressed its concern over the poor financial condition of the State of New York by making three recommendations: (1) raise additional revenues by rescinding the scheduled reduction in personal income tax rates; (2) devote a significant portion of those revenues to eliminating the accumulated deficit; and, (3) curb spending in fiscal year 1991 and subsequent years.

This issue of the Quarterly deals with the economy of New York City. The lead article discusses the emergence of new risks to the City's economy and states that recent events signal a transition for future economic development. Two other articles lay out different scenarios for the economic future of the City. Also included is an interview with Alair Townsend, NYC Deputy Mayor for Finance and Development.

This report analyzes the implementation of the 209 projects initiated in the Capital Budget since fiscal year 1983 which were planned for completion no later than July 1987, and suggests three major reforms to facilitate timely completion of capital projects.

The Commission urges the Charter Revision Commission to proceed with plans to put Charter changes before the voters in November 1988, despite a U.S. Supreme Court announcement to review the constitutionality of the Board of Estimate. Regardless of the ultimate findings of the Court, there are other issues that need to be addressed, including governmental integrity, accountability of public officials, and separation of powers among the branches of City government.

This issue features a lead article that discusses the adopted State budget for fiscal year 1989 and Governor Mario M. Cuomo's priorities as indicated by six-year trends in the budget. John J. Marchi, Chairman of the NYS Senate Finance Committee is interviewed in this issue. The final article assesses State spending for Human Services in the Cuomo years.

This report analyzes the performance of the departments of Sanitation, Fire, Police and Correction. The report provides citizens with information on how their elected officials are "doing" in managing the delivery of municipal services, identifies problems in municipal service management and recommends changes that would result in more effective services.

The lead article in this issue deals with the fiscal implications of AIDS in New York City. The interview in this issue is with Peter Vallone, Majority Leader of the New York City Council. Also included is an article analyzing the latest New York City budget.

This report updates New York City's Housing Crisis: What Has Government Spent? published in December 1987, by including expenditures through fiscal year 1987. Also it provides information on the "output" of housing programs in terms of households or housing units receiving assistance under each program.

The focus of this issue is the New York City Campaign Finance Act, enacted in February 1988. The lead article discusses the history of federal and State campaign finance reform, and the Act's potential efficacy for the 1989 elections. This issue's "Exchange" features an interview with Frank J. Mauro, Director of Research for the New York City Charter Revision Commission.

This report analyzes Mayor Edward I. Koch's Preliminary Executive Budget for fiscal year 1988: the first budget presentation since 1975 with full budgetary authority restored to the City. Despite some reservations, the report concludes that the proposal is a sensible budget.

The special relationship between New York City and State was the focus of a major research project conducted jointly between the CBC and the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government. Sixteen study papers were prepared on a gamut of issues between city and state: economic and demographic trends; legal and political forces; and, division of functional responsibilities. The study papers were then discussed at a conference held at Arden House on February 13-14. This issue summarizes the study papers and highlights the conference proceedings.

This report examines the extent of regulating controls over the City's budget that remain following the official "sunset" of the State Financial Control Board, targets four areas for reform, and analyzes the Preliminary Executive Budget released by the Mayor in January 1987, as the first budget presentation made since full budgetary authority was restored to the City.

This issue features a lead article on New York City's budget process following the official "sunset" of the State Financial Control Board. The article is adapted from a report issued in May 1987. Also included is an interview with Ruth Messinger, a member of the New York City Council. The final article discusses the adopted State budget for fiscal year 1988, and how it differs from the Executive Budget proposed by Governor Cuomo in January.

This report recommends a wage policy for the 1988 round of collective bargaining between the City of New York and municipal employee unions representing approximately 250,000 workers, and evaluates the August 1987 settlement between the City and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.

This issue of the Quarterly is devoted to the topic of the Board of Estimate in New York City, which has emerged as a central concern of the Charter Revision Commission. The issue contains a summary analysis of the history of the Board of Estimate, and statements by Edward Costikyan, Gerald E. Harper, David N. Dinkins, Alan Rothstein, Edward L. Sadowsky, Martin Shefter and Roger Starr considering the various issues involving the structure and the function of the Board.

This issue deals with the topic of education. The lead article discusses the problem of school dropouts. A second article deals with a program established by the Josiah Macy, Jr. Foundation to encourage minority students to seek careers in the health professions. A third article sets forth the agenda for the next school Chancellor. Also included is an interview with former Chancellor Frank Macchiarola. Volume 54, Number 4, December 1987

This report examines the scope and magnitude of public expenditures on housing in New York City. The period observed is 1984 to 1986. All of the major housing programs for each level of government are included in this comprehensive analysis of the City's housing efforts.