When it comes to government spending, New York’s trajectory over the past several years—for both the State and City—is precariously on-brand with the “Excelsior” (Ever Upward) state motto. CBC’s new analyses of State and City spending details the upticks, which are steep—even when accounting for costs related to migrants and asylum seekers. And the new reports show that New York and its localities are likely to stay near the top of the national spending charts, as we highlighted last week.

Total City-funded spending is on track to increase $15.4 billion—22.6 percent—between fiscal years 2019 and 2025. Without the costs related to services for asylum seekers and migrants, spending would increase by $11.8 billion, or 17.3 percent. This is on top of growth of 5.7 percent per year from fiscal year 2012 to fiscal year 2019, more than four times the rate of inflation during those years.

The City just announced that it is canceling the April 2024 PEG, which is ill-advised given that next year's budget still looks to be $3.6 billion short of what would be needed to fund current services and future budget gaps exceed $9 billion annually. The cancelation of the April PEG makes it even more critical that the City clearly and transparently show which programs are funded, which will be trimmed or cut and whether revenues are expected to be higher.
 

At the State level, spending grew nearly 8 percent a year during the pandemic, with the incline leveling off a bit in Governor Kathy Hochul’s Fiscal Year 2025 Executive Budget. Accounting for the proposed savings in education aid and Medicaid, spending would grow 4.1 percent per year through fiscal year 2028. Given the State’s $9.9 billion budget gap in fiscal year 2028 and a $16 billion structural imbalance, further spending restraint is essential to balance the budget over the long term.
 

As budget discussions intensify in the coming weeks and months, City and State leaders should take a clear-eyed look at the numbers and the trajectories and chart a leveling-off path toward greater fiscal stability.