New York Mayor Bill de Blasio’s ambitious goals to create affordable housing and fight income inequality will be tested by slowing economic growth, crimping his plans to win influence in the next presidential election.

Private jobs in the biggest U.S. city grew by 56,000 last year after gaining more than 100,000 annually since 2012. Tax revenue also climbed at a slower pace. Budget monitors and credit analysts expect a deeper slowdown in 2020, with increasing risks of recession. At the same time, the city’s four-year budget calls for spending to rise 13 percent by then to $96 billion.

The fiscal blueprint anticipates a 12 percent increase in salaries, pensions and benefits between 2018 and 2021, and a $2.3 billion deficit in that final year. De Blasio’s budget for the current year stashed a record $5.25 billion in reserves. Comptroller Scott Stringer, a group of city council members and others had urged him to put away even more. 

“We should be getting ready for tougher times,” said Carol Kellermann, president of the Citizens Budget Commission, a business-supported watchdog group.